It took a little longer than I think everyone in the organization hoped, but the New York Mets have been one of the very best teams in baseball since early June, and they are firmly in the postseason picture as the July 30 trade deadline approaches. They're not going to catch the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East crown. They are plenty good enough to secure a wild-card spot though.
"I feel a lot better (about the team) than I did a month and a half ago," Mets POBO David Stearns said earlier this month (via the New York Daily News). "... I think our group, our players, our coaches deserve a lot of credit for battling through what was a really tough May. Put us in a spot where if we continue to play well, we're a playoff-caliber team. That is certainly exciting, and certainly prefer where we sit today and the type of questions I'm getting today than what I got six weeks ago."
A year ago, the Mets sold at the trade deadline, most notably eating a boatload of salary to maximize the return for David Robertson, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and others. It is possible Stearns will buy and sell at the same time -- could he flip a rental starter like Jose Quintana or Luis Severino while adding long-term pieces? -- though, clearly, additions will be made.
Here's what you need to know about the Mets and their trade deadline situation.
Needs
Bullpen. Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. It starts there. The Mets have an excellent offense and, other than maybe a new utility infielder, they are mostly set on a position-player side. The rotation is in decent enough shape too with Kodai Senga working his way back and top pitching prospect Brandon Sproat perhaps not far away either, although a recent UCL sprain landed Christian Scott on the IL with no timeline yet revealed. That said, you can always use more pitching.
The bullpen will be the No. 1 priority though. Righties Reed Garrett (who is currently injured) and Dedniel Núñez have been revelations, and José Buttó looks like a multi-inning weapon, but veterans Jake Diekman and Adam Ottavino are showing their age, and Edwin Díaz has been shaky at times. At minimum, he has not been anywhere particularly close to his dynamic 2022 self.
The Mets added veteran spin-rate monster Phil Maton earlier this month and will look to beef up the bullpen further at the deadline. A starting pitcher with long-term control could help as well. If the Mets do add on the position-player side, a corner outfielder would make the most sense given Starling Marte's ongoing knee issues.
Possible trade targets
Garrett Crochet
CHW • SP • #45
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It is likely the White Sox will trade Garrett Crochet, their All-Star representative, and he is exactly the sort of high-end starter with long-term control the Mets should target. Crochet is already well over his previous career in innings, so it's hard to see how he can start through the postseason, but he could help the Mets with their bullpen issue the rest of this year (he of course has experience as a reliever) before slotting back into the rotation in 2025. He's only 25 and he's under team control through 2026. Every team would like to get Crochet and he fits what the Mets need short- and long-term especially well.
Lucas Erceg
OAK • RP • #70
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Everyone wants Mason Miller, the 104 mph-throwing Athletics closer. All indications are it will take a massive package to get him though, and I have a hard time seeing Stearns paying top dollar for a bullpen arm. Miller's setup man, Lucas Erceg, is very good in his own right. He's another hard-throwing righty who chews up right-handed hitters, has excellent strikeout and ground-ball rates, and is under team control through 2029. Stearns drafted Erceg when he was Brewers GM. Erceg was a third baseman at the time, and Stearns was still in charge when Erceg converted to pitching in Milwaukee's system. There's a history here. Hmmm.
Pete Fairbanks
TB • RP • #29
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The Rays are willing to move anyone at any time, especially relievers making decent money like Pete Fairbanks. His strikeout and swing-and-miss rates are down significantly this season, ditto his fastball velocity, but Fairbanks started from such a high baseline that he's still very effective. He's owed roughly $6 million between now and the end of 2025, and if things go well, his contract includes an affordable $7 club option for 2026. For what it's worth, Stearns was the master at building high-end bullpens on the cheap during his time in Milwaukee. Trading prospects for a name reliever like Fairbanks might not be his cup of tea. Keep in mind the Mets and Rays recently hooked up for the Maton trade. The two sides have already been dialoguing.
Erick Fedde
CHW • SP • #20
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The White Sox could control the pitching market at the deadline between Crochet and Erick Fedde. Fedde has been terrific this season, his first back in MLB after revamping his game in Korea, and he's signed very affordably next year ($7.5 million salary). Sean Manaea has performed well enough to opt out of his contract this offseason, meaning New York's only big-league starters under contract or team control next year are Senga, Megill, David Peterson, and Christian Scott (and I suppose Buttó). They don't want to ask too much of their pitching prospects in 2025. A quality veteran like Fedde helps the Mets this year, and also scratches a starter off their offseason shopping list.
Tanner Scott
MIA • RP • #66
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My guess is Stearns and the Mets would prefer a reliever with multiple years of control, but there is nothing wrong with rentals, and Tanner Scott figures to be the best reliever on the trade market this summer. The Marlins are going to trade him, there's no sense in keeping him when he's going to be a free agent after the season, and he offers big velocity with high strikeout and ground-ball rates. Hard-throwing lefties are always in demand and the Mets would have to win a bidding war to get Scott, Miami's All-Star representative. I'm not sure that's Stearns' thing. Clearly though, Scott would be an immense help for the bullpen.
Trade chips
The first few weeks of the season, we all wondered whether the Mets would trade Pete Alonso at the deadline, and that seems completely off the table now that they're in the postseason race. Moving a rental starter like Quintana or Severino while importing a pitcher with long-term control could be in the cards though, and I'm guessing the Mets would love to unload Jeff McNeil and the more than $30 million he's owed from 2025-26. Steve Cohen is baseball's wealthiest owner, but he doesn't want to pay that.
The Mets leveraged Cohen's wealth last deadline and ate salary to get better prospects. The dirty little secret is many of those prospects aren't doing so hot right now. Drew Gilbert (Verlander trade) just recently resumed playing games after missing three months with a hamstring injury. Luisangel Acuña (Scherzer trade) is struggling to keep his head above water in Triple-A. Ryan Clifford (Verlander trade) is striking out roughly 30% of the time. Colin Houck, last year's first rounder, is flirting with a .600 OPS in Single-A, and Jett Williams, their 2022 first rounder, has been out since April with a wrist injury that required surgery. My hunch is the Mets weren't eager to trade these kids anyway, but, even if they were, their stock is not at its highest.
Stearns' time with the Brewers indicates he will be very protective of his young pitching (Scott, Sproat, Blade Tidwell, etc.), and now that the Mets have caught up to the league's other big-market teams with regards to pitcher development, I suspect that will be true again at the deadline. The Mets may try to address their bullpen needs using Cohen's wealth (i.e. take on money, like Maton) and by trading second- and third-tier prospects such as outfielder Alex Ramírez and catcher Kevin Parada.
A wild-card spot is there for the taking and the Mets owe it to themselves to improve the roster at the deadline, and put the team in the best position for the stretch run and October. Stearns has to figure out how to do it without sacrificing from the top of the farm system. That's why he makes the big bucks. Cohen's money will undoubtedly help there. Adding to the bullpen is the easiest way to improve this team's outlook. The Mets simply allow too many games slip away in the late innings.
